Find the lifetime individual cancer risk and the incremental cancers per year in

Question

Find the lifetime individual cancer risk and the incremental cancers per year in USA (with 340 million people) for Carbon Tetrachloride (a carcinogen) at 0.01 mg/L in drinking water. Suppose 10 million people are exposed to a carcinogen that poses an individual lifetime cancer risk of 10^-4. How many cancers per year might be caused by this carcinogen? And if we spend $1 per year per person to reduce exposure to that carcinogen to reduce the risk to 10^-5, what would be the cost of each cancer avoided?

Explanation / Answer

340 million people

Carcigen in water 0.01mg/L

SF = 1.3*10-1 kg·day/mg

determine the lifetime individual cancer risk and the incremental cancer risk per year?

CDIs for the carcinogen =0.01*2* 365*70/70kg *365* 70=2.8571*10-4 mg/kg.d

here weight of person considered is 70 kg and life time 70 yr

Lifetime Individual Increased risk IR=CDI*SF=2.8571*10-4*1.3*10-1 kg·d/mg= 3.71*10-5

Incremental Cancer Risk per Year=IR/life time= 3.71*10-5/70= 5.3*10-7

B)given Lifetime Individual Increased risk IR=10-4

The annual number of additional cancers per year in a population =(1/10000)*10*106/70=14.2 cancer /yr

Total cost =1*10*106 dollar for all population

10-5*10*106/70=1.42 cancer /yr

so reduced 14.2 -1.42=12.78 =13 person can be saved per year

cost of each cancer avoided =10*106/13=7.69*105 dollar

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