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answer all questions and complete the chart Empirical Climate Model ( Carbon Con

ID: 108990 • Letter: A

Question

answer all questions and complete the chart

Empirical Climate Model (Carbon Connections Climate Model):

http://carbonconnections.bscs.org/curriculum/unit-03/ecm-full/

Start by looking at the individual contribution of each variable by moving all the sliders except one to zero. Record the results in the table below and repeat this procedure for the other three variables. Observe the way that the red line in the top graph reflects changes that you make in the settings.

Try different settings for the variables and see how they change the model. Observe how the different variables interact. (An interesting combination is to set Anthropogenic and Solar Cycles to zero and look at the way the effects of Volcanoes and El Nino have interacted.)

Observations and Reflection

Climate Forcing Component

How much of the “best fit” can be explained by this component (set all other sliders to “0”).

Other observations based on your manipulations of the model.

El Nino

Volcanic

Solar Cycles

Anthropogenic

Describe some of the settings you experimented with and analyze the results.

What conclusions about the overall effects of these four variables on observed temperature fluctuations can you make based on this model?

What is the difference between an empirical model like this one and a Global Climate Model (like EdGCM)? What do you think are the strengths and weaknesses of each type of model?

How do you think climate scientists use empirical models?

Climate Forcing Component

How much of the “best fit” can be explained by this component (set all other sliders to “0”).

Other observations based on your manipulations of the model.

El Nino

Volcanic

Solar Cycles

Anthropogenic

Explanation / Answer

Answer: Limites answer is given in multiple questions according to the chegg rule.

How much of the “best fit” can

be explained by this component (set all other sliders to “0”)

When Anthropogenic & solar cycle are at zero, an equal contribution of El Nino & Volcanic produce a smooth curve akin to observed temperature curve. All element set at less than 1 can't reach the observed curve. Equal all four can produce high variance curve with higher slider value.

Observed Ta fluctuation pattern is mostly produced by the effect of El-Nino where temperature around 1983 & 1993 is contributed by the volcanic eruption. Generally, positive slope trending is contributed by increasing anthropogenic activities over the time. Smaller fluctuation is added to curve by the solar cycle.

Climate forcing element

How much of the “best fit” can

be explained by this component (set all other sliders to “0”)

Other observations based on your manipulations of the model. El Nino Correlation increase with increasing El Nino value. with different variables, correlation increase with increasing variance Volcanic Mostly flat with the only drop at 1983 and 1993. increasing drop level at 1983 & 1993 with increasing volcanic contribution value Solar cycle Mostly flat. Roughness in curve got increased with increasing value smaller fluctuation contributes roughness in curve got varied irrespective of other elemental change Anthropogenic flat trending with a positive slope on increasing value ascending trend is added to the curve.