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The following applies to questions 1-2 below. Consider the ratio form of Bayes\'

ID: 1108873 • Letter: T

Question

The following applies to questions 1-2 below. Consider the ratio form of Bayes' Theorem, i.e., for disjoint hypotheses Ho and Hi, and observed data D 1. What errorn reasonig olves ignoring p(DIH when estimating ? A. Conservatism B. Base rate neglect C. Pseudodiagnosticity D. The gambler's fallacy E. Plasticity p(Ho) p(H1) (Ho|D) 2. What error in reasoning involves treating general case? as being approximately equal to P{ XY in the A. Conservatism B. Plasticity C. The gambler's fallacy D. Censoring E. Base rate neglect

Explanation / Answer

1. Option D.

Gambler's Fallacy.

The Gambler's Fallacy is generally assuming that the odds of a single truely random event are affected in any way by previous iterations of the same or other truly random event.

2. Option E.

Base Rate Neglect.

Bease rate neglect is a cognitive error whereby too little weight is placed on the base (original) rate of possibility.

3. Option D.

4. Option A.

Rational Behaviour.

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