Hospitality Hotels forecasts monthly labor needs. Hospitality Hotels forecasts m
ID: 1163333 • Letter: H
Question
Hospitality Hotels forecasts monthly labor needs.
Hospitality Hotels forecasts monthly labor needs. (a) Given the following monthly labor figures, make a forecast for June using a three-period moving average and a five-period moving average. (Round answers to 2 decimal places, e.g. 15.25.) Actual Values 44 Month January February March April May 3-Period Moving Average 5-Period Moving Average (b) What would be the forecast for June using the naive method? (Round answers to 2 decimal places, e.g. 15.25.) Forecast for June (c) If the actual labor figure for June turns out to be 47, what would be the forecast for July using each of these models? (Round answers to 2 decimal places, e.g. 15.25.) 3-Period Moving Average 5-Period Moving Average Naive method (d) Compare the accuracy of these models using the mean absolute deviation (MAD). (Round answers to 2 decimal places, e.g. 15.25.) MAD (3-period) MAD (5-period) MAD (naïve) (e) Compare the accuracy of these models using the mean squared error (MSE). (Round answers to 2 decimal places, e.g. 15.25.) MSE (3-period) MSE (5-period) MSE (naïve)Explanation / Answer
A.
3 period moving average for June = (44+44+46)/3 = 44.67
5 period moving average for June = (37+44+44+44+46)/5 = 43
B.
Forecast for June using the Naïve method = actual value of May = 46
C.
3 period moving average for July = (44+46+47)/3 = 45.67
5 period moving average for July = (44+44+44+46+47)/5 = 45
Forecast for July using the Naïve method = actual value of June = 47
D.
MAD (3 period) = (2.33+2+2.33)/3 = 2.22
MAD (5 period) = 4/1 = 4
MAD (Naïve) = (7+2+1)/5 = 2
E.
MSE (3 period) = (5.44 + 4+ 5.44)/3 = 4.96
MSE (5 period) = 16/1 = 16
MSE (Naïve) = (49+4+1)/5 = 10.8
Month Actual Values 3 period MA Difference (3 period MA) Square of Difference (3 period MA) 5 Period MA Difference (5 period MA) Square of Difference (5 period MA) Naïve forecast Difference Square of difference January 37 February 44 37 7 49 March 44 44 0 0 April 44 41.67 2.33 5.44 44 0 0 May 46 44.00 2.00 4.00 44 2 4 June 47 44.67 2.33 5.44 43.00 4.00 16.00 46 1 1Related Questions
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