Suppose that the current (first) generation consists of 4 million people, half o

Question

Suppose that the current (first) generation consists of 4 million people, half of whom are women. If the total fertility rate is 1.20 and the only way people die is of old age, how big will the fourth generation (the great-grandchildren) be?

Instructions: Round your answer to the nearest whole number.



How much smaller (in percentage terms) is each generation than the previous generation?percent smaller

How much smaller (in percentage terms) is the fourth generation than the first generation?

Instructions: Round your answer to two decimal places.

percent smaller

Explanation / Answer

50% of the first generation (the women) will have 1.3 children per person. Another way to say this is that 100% of the population will have .65 children per person - or that each sucessive generation will be 65% of the previous.

1st gen 1,000,000
2nd gen 650,000
3rd gen 422,500
4th gen 274,625

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