Consider the following actual data for sales during the 12 months of 2012. (a) F

Question

Consider the following actual data for sales during the 12 months of 2012.

(a) Fill in the third column of 3-month moving average.

(b) Calculate the forecast value of sales in January of 2013.

(c) Calculate the forecast value of sales in February 2013 if January sales turn out to be 70,937.

(d) Use the data in question 6 to calculate 5-month weighted moving average to obtain the forecast value of sales in January 2013 if the last 5 months of 2012 are weighted by 0.12, 0.17, 0.15, 0.21, 0.19, respectively

Month Actual Sales Three-Month Moving Average MAD1 MAD2 January 71,290 February 70,912 March 62,540 April 64,258 May 68,912 June 70,512 July 72,436 August 70,887 September 68,500 October 64,312 November 61,850 December 66,275

Explanation / Answer

Month Actual Sales Three-Month Moving Average MAD1 MAD2 January 71,290 February 70,912 March 62,540 68,247 April 64,258 65,903 May 68,912 65,237 June 70,512 67,894 July 72,436 70,620 August 70,887 71,278 September 68,500 70,608 October 64,312 67,900 November 61,850 64,887 December 66,275 64,146 January 2013 70,937 66,354 a. Three month moving average in filled in column mentioned above. Formula used: For March - sum of (Jan+Feb+Mar)/3 b. Suppose value of Three month moving average in Jan 2013 is average of all moving average then, 3month moving average of Jan 2013 = 67672 Now, sum of (Nov'12+Dec'12+Jan'13)/3 = 67672 128125+Jan'13 = 203016 Jan'13 = 74891 Forecase value of Jan'13 sales is 74891 c. sum of (Dec'12+Jan'13+Feb'13)//3 = Moving average 137212 + Feb'13 = 202656= 65444

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