Hemmingway, Inc., is considering a $7 million research and development (R&D) pro

Question

Hemmingway, Inc., is considering a $7 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway's president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $26 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility.

The decision tree is shown in Figure 13.18. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $65 million. However, the cost of the R&D project ($7 million) and the cost of the production facility ($20 million) show the profit of this outcome to be $65 $7 $20 = $38 million. Branch probabilities are also shown for the chance events.

Analyze the decision tree to determine whether the company should undertake the R&D project. If it does, and if the R&D project is successful, what should the company do?

Yes, the company should start the R&D project and if it is successful, then the company should build the facility.

What is the expected value of your strategy? If required, round your answer to 2 decimal places.

Expected value = $ ????????? M

What must the selling price be for the company to consider selling the rights to the product? If required, round your answers to 2 decimal places.

Payoff for sell rights would have to be $ ???????? M or more. In order to recover the $7M R&D cost, the selling price would have to be $????????? M or more.

Explanation / Answer

As, mentioned by you: Yes, the company should start the R&D project and if it is successful, then the company should build the facility.

0.5 probability of the R& D failing = -7...profit

0.5 probability of the R & D being successul: 19...profit (if the rights are sold)

other scenario (0.1 * 10 + 0.4 * 21 + 0.5 * 38): 28.4...profit (if the facility is built)

So the profit is higher if the facility is built so company should go ahead with that

0.5 probability of R&D failing & 0.5 probability that R&D succeding and facility being built, so the expected value of this strategy would be:

0.5 * (-7) + 0.5 * 28.4 = $ 10.7 M....expected value

While considering the selling price, you should not look at the failed probability, because to sell the rights, your R&D must be successful, expected profits after building the facility are $ 28.4 M and add to that the R&D cost of $ 7 M, so the Payoff for sell rights would have to be $ 28.4 M or more. In order to recover the $7M R&D cost, the selling price would have to be $ 35.4 M or more.

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse H
• Subjects

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.