What was the probability (risk) of cookienemia development among the citizens of
ID: 139877 • Letter: W
Question
What was the probability (risk) of cookienemia development among the citizens of Leopoldville in 2015 from the scenario below?
Problem: Leopoldville is a village of 500 elves with two major ethnic groups—the Anorexies, who comprise 60% of the population, and the Pigouts, who constitute the remaining 40%. The folks of Leopoldville suffered from a variety of maladies, especially donutitis. In 2012, the prevalence rate for this painful disease was 50/1,000 people. Unfortunately, there was a severe outbreak of donutitis in 2013 with the people developing 125 new cases. Just when the problem was under control (only 50 new cases of donutitis in 2014), the townspeople hit a streak of bad luck and were overcome by an epidemic of cookienemia. Although 100 cases of this dreadful condition were reported during 2015, citizens who had previously contracted donutitis were totally resistant and not at risk (lucky for them). Responding rapidly to the emergency, the local health department commenced an intense immunization program which had a tremendously positive impact – only 5 new cases of cookienemia developed during 2016 (3 in Anorexies and 2 in Pigouts). The whole town celebrated, especially the Pigouts, who soon thereafter showed an increased risk of cola colic, developing 50 cases during 2017. Fortunately for the Anorexies, cola colic is confined to Pigouts. Unfortunately for the Pigouts, other diseases afford no protection against cola colic. Assuming there were no deaths births, cures, or migration in Leopoldville from 2012-2017.
Explanation / Answer
Probability Risk:
Probability risk is the chance of risk will occur. Risk is the probabilities of loss. Risk is modeled with probabilities of impact.
Formula:
Probability= Number of favorable event/ total number of events
Above scenario
In 2015
Number favoural event = 500
Total events in 2015= 100
So
= 500/100
=5
Probability = 5.
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