The map on page 3 shows 30-year probabilities for earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 o
ID: 153347 • Letter: T
Question
The map on page 3 shows 30-year probabilities for earthquakes of magnitude 6.7 or greater (calculated by scientists from the USGS, California Geological Society, and the Southern California Earthquake Center - you will be doing similar calculations in class). The Los Angeles area shows particularly high probabilities over a broad area; yet it has not had such an earthquake in the past ??? years. How do you think scientists are able to calculate probabilities of earthquakes that have not occurred?
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf
M >= 6.7 Earthquakes Sacramento San Francisco Probabilities do not include the Cascadia Subduction Zone. 30-Year Earthquake Probability 100% 10% 1% 0. 1% 0.01% Angeles DieExplanation / Answer
We cannot ignore the fact that California resides between the earth's two major tectonic plates, the pacific and North american plates and drastically slides each other at a rate of 2 inches every year. the major earthquake is already due on the state of california and san andreas fault is one of the major reason for a big calamity to arrive in near future.
scientists got to know about the occurence of earthquakes in the future by some analytical study. from the study of geology the scientists get to know about the locations of fault present within the tectonics plates and further seismological study reveals the occurence pattern of earthquakes in the past. and also through GPS scientists track the relative motion of california with respect to steady motion of the two american plates.
through such methods and analysis scientists are able to calculate the probabalities of the earthquakes to occur.
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