IQ-boosting water and illusory correlation: The trashy tabloid Weekly World News

Question

IQ-boosting water and illusory correlation:

The trashy tabloid Weekly World News published an article - "water from mountain falls can make you a genius" - stating that drinking water from a special waterfall in a secret location in switzerland "boosts IQ by 14 points - in the blink of an eye!" Hans and Inger Thurlemann, two hikers lost in the woods, drank some of the water, noticed an imporvement in their thinking, and instandly found their way out of the woods. the most water they drank, the smarter they seemed to get. they credited the "miracle water" with enhancing their IQs. they brought some of the water home to their friends, who also claimed to notice an improvement in their thinking. Explain how a reliance on anecdotes may have led the Thurlemanns to preceive an illusory correlation.

Explanation / Answer

Confirmation bias, also called myside bias, is the tendency to search for, interpret, or recall information in a way that confirms one's beliefs or hypotheses. It is a type of cognitive bias and a systematic error of inductive reasoning. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. People also tend to interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing position. Biased search, interpretation and memory have been invoked to explain illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations).

Confirmation biases contribute to overconfidence in personal beliefs and can maintain or strengthen beliefs in the face of contrary evidence.

Illusory correlation is the phenomenon of perceiving a relationship between variables (typically people, events, or behaviors) even when no such relationship exists. Thurlemanns have read in the newspaper that water from mountain falls can make you genius, so this lead them to believe that the water available at the place where they were lost was making them genius. Actually it lead to boost their confidence and the hope remained that they could find their way back as they were becoming genius by drinking that water. This lead them to try again and again until they found their way back.

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse I
• Subjects

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.