1 Given an ARIMA model of monthly data described by the menu (1,3,0)(2,2,0) how

Question

1 Given an ARIMA model of monthly data described by the menu (1,3,0)(2,2,0) how many data observations will be lost due to differencing to make the series stationary?

a)

b)

c)

d)

e)

30

2 What is the test for model forecast reasonableness and why is it reasonable?

a)

b)

c)

d)

a)

24

b)

5

c)

27

d)

25

e)

30

2 What is the test for model forecast reasonableness and why is it reasonable?

a)

A time series plot of the variable forecast only observing the variation. High variation is reasonable.

b)

A scatter plot of the original data with the X variable to see if it is linear.

c)

A time series plot of the residuals divided by the origonal data to observe the percentage changes over time. The lower the percentage change the more reasonable the forecast.

d)

A time series plot of the variable forecast appended to the original variable data. The forecast must be achievable.

Explanation / Answer

ANS-1 (D) 25

25 data observations will be lost due to differencing to make the series stationary

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