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Klott Company encounters significant uncertainty with its sales volume and price

ID: 2801971 • Letter: K

Question

Klott Company encounters significant uncertainty with its sales volume and price in its primary product. The firm uses scenario analysis in order to determine an expected NPV, which it then uses in its budget. The base case, best case, and worse case scenarios and probabilities are provided in the table below. What is klott's expected NPV, standard deviation of NPV, and coefficient of variation of NPV?

Sales

NPV

A. Expected NPV = $35,000; NPV = 17,500; CVNPV = 2.00

B. Expected NPV = $35,000; NPV = 11,667; CVNPV = 0.33

C. Expected NPV = $10,300: NPV =12,083; CVNPV = 1.17.

D. Expected NPV = $13,900; NPV = 8,476; CVNPV = 0.61

E. Expected NPV = $8,800; NPV = 10,638; CVNPV = 1.21.

Probability of Outcome Unit Sales Volume

Sales

Price

NPV

(Thousands) Worst case 0.30 6,000 $3,6000 -$6,000 Base case 0.60 10,000 4,200 +13,000 Best case 0.10 13,000 4,400 +28,000

Explanation / Answer

E. Expected NPV = $8,800; NPV = 10,638; CVNPV = 1.21. Probability of Outcome NPV (Thousands) Expected NPV Worst case 0.3 -$6,000.00 -$1,800.00 Base case 0.6 13000 $7,800.00 Best case 0.1 28000 $2,800.00 Expected NPV $8,800.00 Probability of Outcome NPV (Thousands) NPV - Expected NPV (NPV - Expected NPV)^2 (NPV - Expected NPV)^2 x prob. Worst case 0.3 -$6,000.00 -$14,800.00 $219,040,000.00 $65,712,000.00 Base case 0.6 13000 $4,200.00 $17,640,000.00 $10,584,000.00 Best case 0.1 28000 $19,200.00 $368,640,000.00 $36,864,000.00 Variance $113,160,000.00 Standard deviation = Sqrt(variance) $10,637.67 CV = SD NPV /Expected NPV = $10638/$8800 1.21