1) Using the data set below, what would be the forecast for period 5 using the e
ID: 2817487 • Letter: 1
Question
1)
Using the data set below, what would be the forecast for period 5 using the exponential smoothing method? Assume the forecast for period 4 is 14000. Use a smoothing constant of = 0.4 (Choose the closest answer.)
Period
Actual Demand
1
10000
2
12400
3
13250
4
14750
5
15220
6
18500
c 14300
d 15220
2)
Using the actual demand shown in the table below, what is the forecast for May (accurate to 1 decimal) using a 3-month weighted moving average and the weights 0.20, 0.35, 0.45 (with the heaviest weight applied to the most recent period. Round to nearest whole number)?
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
39
36
40
38
48
58
Period
Actual Demand
1
10000
2
12400
3
13250
4
14750
5
15220
6
18500
Explanation / Answer
Ans 1) Ft = a*At-1 + (1-a) * Ft-1
Where:
Ft = .4 * 14750 + 14000 * .6
= 14300
Corect answer is option C
Ans 2) 3 month weighted moving average forecast for May = .2* 38 + .35*48 + .45*58
= 51
correct answer is option A.
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