Disaggregated growth rates for three future scenarios are given: Answer the foll

Question

Disaggregated growth rates for three future scenarios are given: Answer the following for each scenario. Predict CO_2-indueed global equilibrium temperatures in 70 years. Assume the initial CO_2 concentration is 356 ppm, the initial emission rate is 6.0 times 10^15 g C/yr, and the initial atmospheric carbon content is 750 times 10^15 g C. (Answer to Scenario A: 0.55 K) If these growth rates continue, in what year would CO_2 concentrations be double the initial value of 356 ppm? (Answer to Scenario A = never, Answer to Scenario B = 68.7 yr)

Explanation / Answer

a. Increase in global equilibrium temperature in 70 years=?

Initial CO2 concentration=356 ppm

Initial emission rate=6 Gt/Cyr

Inital atmospheric content=750GtC

Increase in CO2 concentration in 70 years= initial emission rate * 70

=6*70=420GtC

Since initial atmospheric carbon content=750 Gtc

Therefore CO2 concentration in the atmosphere in 70 years=750+420=1170 GtC

For each 500 Gtc increase in CO2 concentration the equilibrium temperature rises by 1 degree celsius. Therefore for 420 degree celsius the temperature rises by 0.8 degree celsius in 70 years.

b. Since 1 ppm of CO2=2.12 GTC

For 6 GTC/year increase of year=6/2.12=2.8 ppm/year

which means that carbon is increasing 2.8 ppm CO2/year

If the rate of increase of CO2 is 2.8 ppm/year and the initial concentration is 356 ppm. So it will take around 356/2.8=127 years to double its concentration.

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