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Question

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Explanation / Answer

The sample size of the survey, n is 1248.

Out of the 1248 people, 797 said they voted in the elections. This is the sample proportion.

Thus, sample proportion, p = 797/1248= 0.6386218= 0.64

The population proportion, P= 0.61

Given that this information is true, we need to find the probability that 797 people did actually vote. (In the sample of 1248)

Let us first find the Z-score of this observation.

The standard error of this observation is sqrt((p*q)/n)= sqrt(0.64*0.36/ 1248)

= sqrt(0.6386218)= 0.01358732

Thus, the z-score is (p-P)/ SE= (0.64-0.61)/0.01358732= 2.207941

The probability of X>=797= 1- probability of X<797= 1- 0.9864

=0.0136= 1.36%

The second question, in my opinion, can have more than 1 answers.

Since the probability of X being greater than 797 is very small, we may say that people are being honest about voting, because not many people above 797 seem to have voted (probability being less than 5%).

On the other hand, since the probabilty of X being greater than 797 is at least 1%, we may say that some people are being less than honest (since the required probability is at least 1%).

I believe the first option seems to be more right. 5% is a good p-value. 1% is too less a p-value to judge the honesty of people.

Thus, 1.36% suggests that people are being honest about voting, because not many people above 797 seem to have voted (probability being less than 5%).