3. When a coin is flipped multiple times, a \"run\" is a sequence of two or more

Question

3. When a coin is flipped multiple times, a "run" is a sequence of two or more identical outcomes, and an "alternation" is a chang from Heads to Tails or from Tails to Heads. For example, the sequence HHHTTHTHT (where H= Heads and T=Tails) starts with a run of 3 Heads, followed by an alternation from Heads to Tails, followed by a run of two Tails, then an alternation to Heads, etc. If subjects are asked to produce random sequences of Heads and Tails without actually flipping a coin, the sequences they come up with contain too many alternations, as compared to truly random sequences. (As an extreme example, a subject may say HTHTHTHT which simply alternates, with no runs at ll. Which fallacy or heuristic, as discussed by Angner or Baron, might explain their behavior?

Explanation / Answer

Answer to the question)

The fallacy shown in this question is related to random sequence

it is best described as Gambler's falacy or monte carlo fallacy

Accoridngly, it is stated that the coming up of tail doesnot depend on how many times the head has appeared so far. But when theoretically the researcher is required to form the random process, it is his consciousness that makes him assure that there are 50% heads and tails in the sequence. That is the reason why it is the easiest way to get alterations in the sequence and avoid runs completely.

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