31. A certain health condition has two possible treatments . Treatment A, if suc

Question

31. A certain health condition has two possible treatments . Treatment A, if successful, will extend the lifetime of the patient by 36 months. If it fails, it will neither increase nor reduce the expected lifetime of the patient. Clinical trials show that 20% of patients respond to this treatment. ·Treatment B, if successful, will increase the lifetime of the patient by 14 months, and 65% of the patients respond to it. In addition, 10% of the patients subject to this treatment suffer from an adverse reaction that reduces their expected lifetime by 2 months, and for the rest (25%) the treatment has no effect Which one of the two treatments would you recommend, and why? Are there any circum- stances under which you would recommend the other treatment?

Explanation / Answer

Let "u" expected life time

after tretment A

Expected (extendend lifetime) =0.2*36+0.8* 0 =7.2

expected extendend lifetime is 7.2 months

now

After Treatment B

Exp(Extended lifetime)=0.65*14-0.1*2 +0.25*0=9.1 -0.2 +0 =8.9

so in this case Extended life time is 8.9 months

Since after B tretment extended life time is more than that after tretment A so i recommend B treatment

Yes, if Patient dont want affected by adverse reaction so i recommend A treatment

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