(7) During the peak of the holiday season, if you are trying to travel from Akro
ID: 2933446 • Letter: #
Question
(7) During the peak of the holiday season, if you are trying to travel from Akron to Miami, you can go through either Atlanta or Chicago or Washington DC, 50% of the flights out of Akron go to Chicago, 30% go to Atlanta and the rest of them to Washington. Due to the holiday rush, your chances of getting a seat at all on a flight from Chicago to Miami is 20%, that for Atlanta to Miami is 10% and that for Washington DC to Miami is 10%. If you were ultimately able to fly from Akron to Miami, what are the (conditional) chances that you went through Atlanta?Explanation / Answer
probability that one is able to fly from Akron to Miami =P(through Chicago and able to+ through Atlanata and able to+through Washington and able to)=0.5*0.2+0.3*0.1+0.2*0.1=0.15
hence conditional chance that you went through Atlnata given able to fly from Akron to Miami
=P(through Atlanata and able to fly from Akron to Miami)/P(able to fly from Akron to Miami )
=0.3*0.1/0.15=0.2
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