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There are many research efforts to model and predict agricultural production, an

ID: 2935327 • Letter: T

Question

There are many research efforts to model and predict agricultural production, and the model result is aggregated into county level (i.e., the total production in a county). A research scientist wants to compare the results of two different models (Model 1, Model 2). He randomly collected some counties and their model result from the two models, and the samples are listed below.

Model 1

Model 2

County

Modeled Agricultural Production

County

Modeled Agricultural Production

17001

510.47

17001

433.01

17015

387.20

17003

66.11

17017

230.09

17005

341.76

17019

1170.00

17007

278.09

17021

728.07

17013

68.50

17023

318.62

17015

343.51

17025

335.31

17017

316.04

17031

18.50

17019

1120.68

17033

337.37

17021

770.47

17035

155.52

17023

370.09

17037

734.95

17025

313.09

17039

405.03

17027

372.20

17029

402.52

17031

2.77

Question 2 .If we cannot assume that for each model, the result county-level agricultural production follows a normal distribution, do a test to confirm the two models provide the same results.

Model 1

Model 2

County

Modeled Agricultural Production

County

Modeled Agricultural Production

17001

510.47

17001

433.01

17015

387.20

17003

66.11

17017

230.09

17005

341.76

17019

1170.00

17007

278.09

17021

728.07

17013

68.50

17023

318.62

17015

343.51

17025

335.31

17017

316.04

17031

18.50

17019

1120.68

17033

337.37

17021

770.47

17035

155.52

17023

370.09

17037

734.95

17025

313.09

17039

405.03

17027

372.20

17029

402.52

17031

2.77

Explanation / Answer

Mann-Whitney Test and CI: Model 1, Model 2

N Median
Model 1 12 362.3
Model 2 14 342.6


Point estimate for ETA1-ETA2 is 37.7
95.2 Percent CI for ETA1-ETA2 is (-97.8,318.6)
W = 174.0
Test of ETA1 = ETA2 vs ETA1 not = ETA2 is significant at 0.5542

Comment: The estimated p-value is 0.5542. Hence, we can conclude that there is no significant difference between the medians of total production for Two model (model 1 and model2 ) at 0.05 level of significance.

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