Part I We’ll use the “Debt and Taxes” tab in the Lab 5 Excel Workbook The Econom

Question

Part I

We’ll use the “Debt and Taxes” tab in the Lab 5 Excel Workbook

The Economic Data Runs from 1946 (1st year post WW2) to 2016

Note: This issue is tremendously more complicated than the two variables presented here. This is only a partial look at the issue and there is ample room for debate as causes of the issues at hand.

1) Examining the Relationships

              Create and copy in the following Charts

                             1) Line Chart with “Year”, “Top Bracket %”, and “Debt (Relative to 1946)”

                             2) Scatterplot with “Year” and “Top Bracket %,” choose “Show Trendline”

                             3) Scatterplot with “Year” and “National Debt (Trillions),” choose “Show Trendline”

              a) What trends do you see over time?

              b) Do “Top Bracket %” and “National Debt(Trillions)” appear associated?

              c) What might be a possible confounding factor?

2) Running Regressions

              a) Use “Data->Data Analysis->Regression” with “Top Bracket” as the y variable and

“Year” as the x- variable.

What is your model? Slope t-value? F-Value? R squared?

              b) Run a second regression with “National Debt(Trillions)” as the y variable and

                             “Year” as the x-variable.

What is your model? Slope t-value? F-Value? R squared?

             

c) Run a final regression with “National Debt(Trillions)” as the y variable and

                             “Top Bracket %” as the x-variable

What is your model? Slope t-value? F-Value? R squared?

              d) Based on the R squared from part c) how much of the debts change is due to taxes?

Part II

We will use the “Twins Data” tab in the workbook.

1) Single Variable

              a) Create a Scatterplot of “Wins” and “Runs” (You might need to rescale the axis for each)

              b) Run a Regression with “Wins” as y and “Runs” as x

c) What is your model? Slope t-value? F-Value? R squared?

2) Multivariable

              a) Traditional Stats

                             Run a regression with “Wins” as the y variable and both “Batting Average” and “ERA”

as the two x variables

What is your model? Slope t-values? F-Value? R squared?

              b) Moneyball Stats

                             Run a regression with “Wins” as the y variable and “OPS” and “WHIP” as the x variables

What is your model? Slope t-value? F-Value? R squared?

3) Of the 3 options which model do you feel works the best? Explain.

Year Top Bracket % Decimal for Top Bracket National Debt (Trillions) Debt (Relative to 1946) 1946 91 0.91 0.271 1.000 1947 91 0.91 0.257 0.948 1948 91 0.91 0.252 0.930 1949 91 0.91 0.253 0.934 1950 91 0.91 0.257 0.948 1951 91 0.91 0.255 0.941 1952 92 0.92 0.259 0.956 1953 92 0.92 0.266 0.982 1954 91 0.91 0.271 1.000 1955 91 0.91 0.274 1.011 1956 91 0.91 0.273 1.007 1957 91 0.91 0.271 1.000 1958 91 0.91 0.276 1.018 1959 91 0.91 0.285 1.052 1960 91 0.91 0.286 1.055 1961 91 0.91 0.289 1.066 1962 91 0.91 0.298 1.100 1963 91 0.91 0.306 1.129 1964 77 0.77 0.312 1.151 1965 70 0.7 0.317 1.170 1966 70 0.7 0.320 1.181 1967 70 0.7 0.326 1.203 1968 70 0.7 0.348 1.284 1969 70 0.7 0.354 1.306 1970 70 0.7 0.371 1.369 1971 70 0.7 0.398 1.469 1972 70 0.7 0.427 1.576 1973 70 0.7 0.458 1.690 1974 70 0.7 0.475 1.753 1975 70 0.7 0.533 1.967 1976 70 0.7 0.620 2.288 1977 70 0.7 0.699 2.579 1978 70 0.7 0.772 2.849 1979 70 0.7 0.827 3.052 1980 70 0.7 0.908 3.351 1981 70 0.7 0.998 3.683 1982 50 0.5 1.142 4.214 1983 50 0.5 1.377 5.081 1984 50 0.5 1.572 5.801 1985 50 0.5 1.823 6.727 1986 50 0.5 2.125 7.841 1987 38.5 0.385 2.340 8.635 1988 28 0.28 2.602 9.601 1989 28 0.28 2.857 10.542 1990 28 0.28 3.233 11.930 1991 31 0.31 3.665 13.524 1992 39.6 0.396 4.065 15.000 1993 39.6 0.396 4.411 16.277 1994 39.6 0.396 4.693 17.317 1995 39.6 0.396 4.974 18.354 1996 39.6 0.396 5.225 19.280 1997 39.6 0.396 5.413 19.974 1998 39.6 0.396 5.526 20.391 1999 39.6 0.396 5.656 20.871 2000 39.6 0.396 5.674 20.937 2001 39.1 0.391 5.807 21.428 2002 38.6 0.386 6.228 22.982 2003 35 0.35 6.783 25.030 2004 35 0.35 7.379 27.229 2005 35 0.35 7.933 29.273 2006 35 0.35 8.507 31.391 2007 35 0.35 9.008 33.240 2008 35 0.35 10.025 36.993 2009 35 0.35 11.910 43.948 2010 35 0.35 13.562 50.044 2011 35 0.35 14.790 54.576 2012 35 0.35 16.066 59.284 2013 39.6 0.396 16.738 61.764 2014 39.6 0.396 17.824 65.771 2015 39.6 0.396 18.151 66.978 2016 39.6 0.396 19.573 72.225

Explanation / Answer

Part.1

Part-1

1 Examine the relationship

2. Scatterplot with Year and Top Bracket % with trendline .

3. Scatter plot with Year and National Debt

Q.2

a. When Top bracket is y variable and year is x variable the Output is

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.929531

R Square

0.864028

Adjusted R Square

0.862057

Standard Error

8.520685

Observations

71

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

31832.87

31832.87

438.4568

1.31E-31

Residual

69

5009.543

72.60207

Total

70

36842.41

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

2106.669

97.75262

21.55102

2.32E-32

1911.658

2301.68

1911.658

2301.68

Year

-1.0332

0.049342

-20.9394

1.31E-31

-1.13163

-0.93476

-1.13163

-0.93476

The Model is given by

Y(Top Bracket %)=2106.669-1.0332*X(Year)

The t value for intercept is 21.55102 and for slope coefficient or Year t value is -209394

F value is given by 438.4568

R Sq value is 0.864028

B. When National Debt (Trillions) is Y variable and year is x variable then output is:

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.83730135

R Square

0.70107356

Adjusted R Square

0.69674129

Standard Error

2.83266867

Observations

71

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

1298.494

1298.494

161.826

9.17E-20

Residual

69

553.6568

8.024012

Total

70

1852.151

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

-409.535751

32.49748

-12.6021

1.45E-19

-474.366

-344.705

-474.366

-344.705

Year

0.20867294

0.016404

12.72109

9.17E-20

0.175948

0.241397

0.175948

0.241397

The Model is given by

Y(National Debt)=409.53575+0.286729*X(Year)

The t value for intercept is 12.6021 and for slope coefficient or Year t value is 12.7211

F value is given by 161.826

R Sq value is 0.701074

C. When National Debt (Trillions) is y variable and Top Bracket % is xvarible then output is,

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.6716638

R Square

0.45113225

Adjusted R Square

0.44317765

Standard Error

3.83837557

Observations

71

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

835.5649

835.5649

56.71334

1.44E-10

Residual

69

1016.586

14.73313

Total

70

1852.151

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

12.8663055

1.281564

10.03953

3.96E-15

10.30965

15.42296

10.30965

15.42296

Top Bracket %

-0.15059692

0.019997

-7.53083

1.44E-10

-0.19049

-0.1107

-0.19049

-0.1107

The Model is given by

Y(National Debt)=12.866+0.1506*X(Top Bracket %)

The t value for intercept is 10.04 and for slope coefficient or top Bracket t value is 7.531

F value is given by 56.71334

R Sq value is 0.4511

D. Based on taxes 45% Debt is change .

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.929531

R Square

0.864028

Adjusted R Square

0.862057

Standard Error

8.520685

Observations

71

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

31832.87

31832.87

438.4568

1.31E-31

Residual

69

5009.543

72.60207

Total

70

36842.41

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

2106.669

97.75262

21.55102

2.32E-32

1911.658

2301.68

1911.658

2301.68

Year

-1.0332

0.049342

-20.9394

1.31E-31

-1.13163

-0.93476

-1.13163

-0.93476

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse P
• Subjects

---

---

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.