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I am having a problem answering this question: The night foreman for an injectio

ID: 2951783 • Letter: I

Question

I am having a problem answering this question: The night foreman for an injection molding firm admits that on10% of his shifts he forgets to shut off the injection moldingmachine. This causes the machine to overheat and theprobability that a defective molding will be produced during theearly morning run increases from 2% to 20%. What is theprobability that a defective molding is created during the earlymorning run? I am having a problem answering this question: The night foreman for an injection molding firm admits that on10% of his shifts he forgets to shut off the injection moldingmachine. This causes the machine to overheat and theprobability that a defective molding will be produced during theearly morning run increases from 2% to 20%. What is theprobability that a defective molding is created during the earlymorning run?

Explanation / Answer

P(turned off the night before a run)=P(T)=.9 P(not turned off)=P(T')=.1 Let D= a defective is produced P(D/T)=.02 P(D/T')=.2 Wish to find P(D)=P(D/T)P(T) + P(D/T')P(T') P(D)=.02(.9)+(.2).1=.038