Question: Suppose that 2% of the population has a disease,which can be tested by

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Question: Suppose that 2% of the population has a disease,which can be tested by a certain blood test with the probability ofsuccess (positive diagnosis) 0.95 among those who actually havethis disease, and the probability 0.03 of failure (false positivediagnosis) among healthy people. What is the probability thata person chosen at random has the disease, given that the person'sblood test yields the positive diagnosis? My work: P(blood test positive) = .02*.95+.98*.03 I want to someone check if my answer is right. If notplease provide me with explanations how to do, if possible can youshow the work.

Explanation / Answer

Your process is definitely correct. One useful tool to dothese problems is to draw a Bayes tree diagam. Hope this helps, Mike

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