: A manufacturing firm employs three companies to develop their software. Compan

Question

: A manufacturing firm employs three companies to develop their software. Company 1,2, and 3 are used 30%, 20% and 50% of the time respectively. The program failure rate is different for all three companies: 0.01, 0.03, and 0.02 respectively. If a random software is observed and found to have errors, which company most likely created it?

Note : use bayes' theorem

answers are : p(c1/e)= 0.158 p(c2/e)= 0.316 p(c3/e)= 0.526

where c1,c2 ,c3 are companies & e is the error

needs calcuations please

Explanation / Answer

If a random software is observed and found to have errors, which company most likely created it?

error = 0.30*0.01 + 0.20*0.03 +0.50*0.02

error = 0.019

P(c1 / e) = 0.30*0.01 / 0.019 = 0.158

P( c2/e) = 0.20*0.03 / 0.019 = 0.316

P(c3 / e ) = 0.50*0.02 / 0.019 = 0.526

so the company that is most likely to create it is the company that have less error that is company C1

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