If a coin is a fair coin, then you would expect the number of heads to be roughl
ID: 3023419 • Letter: I
Question
If a coin is a fair coin, then you would expect the number of heads to be roughly half the number of times you tossed it. Here you are using the theoretical probability of ½ for a head. If you suspected a coin was slightly top heavy how would you compute the probability of a head? You have no theory at your disposal. The answer is, you would flip the coin a lot (emphasis on "a lot") and count the number of heads. If you flipped the coin 1,000 times and saw 650 heads, you would estimate the probability of a head to be 650/1000 = 0.65. This might not be the exact probability. Flipping 10,000 times might reveal 6486 heads or a probability of 0.6486 but you would be confident your estimate was close. This is called an empirical probability and is how probabilities are often computed for events far too complicated to analyze theoretically. For example, consider a health-related probability. The National Center for Health Statistics, a division of the Center for Disease Control, (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs) collects and publishes data of a health related nature. The web site mostly contains data that have been already statistically summarized along with a variety of factoids. Go to the link above and click on FastStats: Statistics by Topic to view the alphabetical list of public health topics. Next click on Allergies. Click on the Summary Health Statistics for U.S. Adults to view the pdf file of the report. Read the abstract and complete ALL the exercises below in a Word document. You only need to include the exercise # and your answer. Label your completed Word document using your initials (Ex. MR.docx or MR.doc).
Exercises:
Use one sentence to describe the objective of this report.
The Sample Adult questionnaire collected data on how many adults?
What percent of adults were obese? How would you write this percent as a probability?
What is the probability of not being obese?
According to the report the percent of adults aged 18 and over who had excellent or very good health in 2012 was 61%. According to the Census bureau web site (http://www.census.gov/) in 2012 the number of U.S. adults (18 and over) was 240,113,369. How many U.S. adults (18 and over) had excellent or very good health in 2012?
Explanation / Answer
Use one sentence to describe the objective of this report.
The objective of the report is to present detailed information gathered during the 2012 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) for the US non-combatant, non-institutionalized adult residents, in tabular form.
The Sample Adult questionnaire collected data on how many adults?
The Sample Adult questionnaire collected data on 34525 adults.
What percent of adults were obese? How would you write this percent as a probability?
28% of adults were obese.
As per the report, there is a probability of finding 28 obese people in random samples of 100 US adult civilian residents. Or that there is a 28% (i.e. 0.28) probability that any random picked US adult civilian resident is an obese person.
What is the probability of not being obese?
The probability (not obese) = 1 - probability(obese)
or probability (not obese) = 1 - 0.28 = 0.72 = 72%
According to the report the percent of adults aged 18 and over who had excellent or very good health in 2012 was 61%. According to the Census bureau web site (http://www.census.gov/) in 2012 the number of U.S. adults (18 and over) was 240,113,369. How many U.S. adults (18 and over) had excellent or very good health in 2012?
As per US Census Bureau, 2012's adult (i.e. 18 years+ ) population = 240,113,369
% of US Adults in 2012 with excellent / very good health = 61% = 61/100 = 0.61
Therefore, count of US Adults in 2012 with excellent / very good health = 240,113,369 * 0.61 = 146,469,155
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