On September 18, 2003, huricane Isabel struck several days prior to reaching lan

Question

On September 18, 2003, huricane Isabel struck several days prior to reaching land the National Hurricane Center had been predicting the hurricane would come on shore between Cape Fear, North Carolina, and the North Carolina Virginia border. It was estimated that the probability the hurricane would actually stike in this area was 0 82. In fact, the hurricane did come on shore almost exactly as forecast and was almost in the center of the strike area the North Carolina Coast, causing extensive damage. For STORM CONTINUES NORTHWEST Position : 27.8 N, 71.4 W Movement: NNW at 8 mph Sustalned winds: 105 mpth As of 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday Potential area of movement 30 -Humane watch Ocean Tropical storm watch CUIBA 20 Bo w 70 The National Hurricane Center forecasts that the hurricane will hit the strike area with a probability of 0 82 a. What probability distribution does this folow? Click to select) b. if there are 5 huricanes this season, what is the probability that all reach the strike area? (Round your answer to 4 decimal places.) Probability c. What is the probability at least one of 5 hurricanes reaches land outside the stike area? (Round your answer to 4 decimal places.) Probability

Explanation / Answer

Ans:

a)Binomial distribution(as independent trials and only two outcomes i.e strike or not strike)

b)n=5,p=0.82

P(x=5)=5C5*0.825*(1-0.82)0=0.3707

c)P(atleast one do not strike)=1-P(none of them do not strike)=1-P(all strike)=1-0.3707=0.6293

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