The number of flowers sold at The Blossom Shop on Fridays is shown in the table
ID: 3042043 • Letter: T
Question
The number of flowers sold at The Blossom Shop on Fridays is shown in the table below.
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
1
55
6
50
11
60
2
57
7
57
12
61
3
60
8
52
13
68
4
59
9
53
14
63
5
58
10
73
15
67
Round off all calculations to two decimal places. Maintaining two decimal places is required for all calculations
Assume that the control limits for the tracking signal are ±4. What can be concluded about the quality of the forecasts using = 0.30 or = 0.70?
Both forecasts are unbiased. The forecasts using alpha = 0.3 and alpha = 0.7 both produce no tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.
Both forecasts are biased. The forecasts using alpha = 0.3 and alpha = 0.7 both produce at least one tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.
The forecast using alpha = 0.3 is unbiased. The forecast using alpha = 0.3 produces no tracking signals that are outside the tracking signal limits. The forecast using 0.7 is biased since it produces at least one tracking signal that is outside the tracking signal limits.
The forecast using alpha = 0.3 is biased. The forecast using alpha = 0.3 produces at least one tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits. The forecast using alpha = 0.7 is unbiased and produces no tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
1
55
6
50
11
60
2
57
7
57
12
61
3
60
8
52
13
68
4
59
9
53
14
63
5
58
10
73
15
67
Explanation / Answer
HEre the forecasted estimates are given below.
So here error is absolute error. and as the tracking signal is +- 4 so we can say for alpha = 0.3, there are 4 tracking signal but for alpha = 0.7, there are 5 tracking signal.
Option B is correct as The forecasts using alpha = 0.3 and alpha = 0.7 both produce at least one tracking signal that falls outside the tracking signal limits.
Week Demand Forecast (alpha = 0.3) Forecast (alpha = 0.7) Error (alpha = 0.3) Error (alpha = 0.7) 1 55 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 2 57 55 55 2 2 3 60 55.6 56.4 4.4 3.6 4 59 56.92 58.92 2.08 0.08 5 58 57.544 58.976 0.456 0.976 6 50 57.681 58.2928 7.6808 8.2928 7 57 55.377 52.4878 1.6234 4.5122 8 52 55.864 55.6464 3.8636 3.6464 9 53 54.705 53.0939 1.7045 0.0939 10 73 54.193 53.0282 18.8068 19.9718 11 60 59.835 67.0085 0.1648 7.0085 12 61 59.885 62.1025 1.1154 1.1025 13 68 60.219 61.3308 7.7807 6.6692 14 63 62.553 65.9992 0.4465 2.9992 15 67 62.687 63.8998 4.3126 3.1002Related Questions
drjack9650@gmail.com
Navigate
Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.