Assume a category 3 hurricane has a probability of 0.01 to upgrade to a category

Question

Assume a category 3 hurricane has a probability of 0.01 to upgrade to a category 4 category hurricane. You are tracking the progression of category 3 hurricanes. You have collected data about 2557 hurricanes that occurred in the past 150 years, among which 538 started as a category 3 hurricane. Use this information and answer questions 3a to 3h. Question 3g: You randomly select hurricanes from a pool of hurricanes which stared as a category 3 one at a time. What is the probability that you will select a category 3 hurricane that upgraded to a category 4 hurricane for the first time on the 28th selection? (use 4 decimal places) Question 3h: How many selections would you expect to have in order to find a category 3 hurricane that upgraded to a category 4 hurricane for the first time?

Explanation / Answer

3g) probability =P(first 27 hurricances did not got upgraded and 28th hurricane got upgraded)

=(0.99)27*0.01 =0.0076

3h)

expected number to have in order to find a category 3 hurricane that upgraded to category 4 =1/p =1/0.01 =100

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