A study on the accuracy of fingerprint analysis found a pair of non-matching pri

Question

A study on the accuracy of fingerprint analysis found a pair of non-matching prints would be falsely identified as a match .1% of the time, where as matching prints would fail to be identified 7.5% of the time. Let M stand for the event that a pair of prints match (came from the same person) and I for the event they are identified as a match by the examiner Consider a sample space in which the thumbprints of 1000 people in a town (including the source) are compared against one print at a crime scene. You do not need to simplify your answers. a. What is P[M]? What are the probabilities given in the problem set up? b. What is P[? c. Given a print is identified by the analyst, what is the chance it actually matches the source of the print at the crime scene?

Explanation / Answer

a) Probability of being the pair =P(M) = P(A)=0.001

b)P( not A)=0.999

P( Match/A) =0.925 P( Match/not A)= 0.001

P(I) = 0.001*0.925+0.999*0.001= 0.001924

c) P(M/I) = 0.001*0.925/0.001924=.4807

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