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Consider the performance on the hardest hole at a given golf course. Historicall

ID: 3047143 • Letter: C

Question

Consider the performance on the hardest hole at a given golf course. Historically, golfers score below par on this hole one out of every 14 rounds of golf (success rate is 1/14 or approx. 0.0714). Use the binomial probability distribution to answer questions concerning the expected performance of the next 30 golfers

1) In cell B53, briefly explain why the Binomial Probability Distribution is a better fit for this issue than the Poisson Probability Distribution.

2) What is the expected number of times during the next 30 rounds of golf that golfers are expected to score below par on this hole? Enter calculation in cell B54.

3) What is the probability that 2 or fewer golfers in the next 30 rounds of golf score below par on this hole? Insert your own reference in the appriate cell on the answer worksheet similar to the references I included for earlier questions.

4) What is the probability that 5 or more golfers in the next 30 rounds of golf score below par on this hole? Insert your own reference in the appropriate cell on the answre worksheet.

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Explanation / Answer

Here n = 30 and p = 1/14 for the given binomial distribution.

1) In cell B53, briefly explain why the Binomial Probability Distribution is a better fit for this issue than the Poisson Probability Distribution.

Here as the binomial parameter n and p is well defined where we know the sample space defined from 0 to 30 so binomial distribution is better option here than undefined sample space poisson distribution.

2) What is the expected number of times during the next 30 rounds of golf that golfers are expected to score below par on this hole? Enter calculation in cell B54.

Expected number of times golfers expected to score below par = 30 * 1/14 = 2.143

3) What is the probability that 2 or fewer golfers in the next 30 rounds of golf score below par on this hole? Insert your own reference in the appriate cell on the answer worksheet similar to the references I included for earlier questions.

Answer : If X is the number of score below pars

Pr(X <= 2) = BIN (X < = 2 ; 30 ; 1/14) = BINOMDIST(2, 30, 1/14, True) = 0.6367

4) What is the probability that 5 or more golfers in the next 30 rounds of golf score below par on this hole? Insert your own reference in the appropriate cell on the answre worksheet.

Answer : Pr(X > = 5) = 1 - BINOMDIST (4,30, 1/14, true) = 1 - 0.9407 = 0.0593

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