HW 16: Problem 1 Previou Problem List Next (1 point) You ask a neighbor to water

Question

HW 16: Problem 1 Previou Problem List Next (1 point) You ask a neighbor to water a sickly pliant while you are on vacation ehout water the plant will de with probubity 085.wth wter le w probablity 0.55, You are 80 %certain the negtor wil rementer to water nepat When you are on vacation, find the probability that the plant wil de Answer You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probablity the neighbor forgot to water Answer Hint It may help to tl in a table like this one Plant lives Plant dies Total Neighbor remembers Neighbor forgets Total Note: You can eam partal credit on this probiem have atemptod this

Explanation / Answer

P(Plant dies) = P(Neighbour waters ) * P(Plant dies | Water) + P(No water) * P(Plant dies | No water)

= 0.80 * 0.55 + (1-0.80) * 0.85 = 0.5560

Using Bayes' theorem,

P(No water | Plant dead) = P(No water) * P(Plant dies | No water) / P(Plant dies)

= (1-0.80) * 0.85 / 0.556 = 0.3058

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