9. (6 points)It is estimated that 0.5 % of the population are en applied to a pe

Question

9. (6 points)It is estimated that 0.5 % of the population are en applied to a person sufferers of the swine flu A diagnostic test has a 95% who has swine flu, and a 10% of giving a (false) positive w someone who does not have swine flu. Suppose to a person about whom w hen applied to that the test is now administered e have no relevant information relating to the disease (apart from the fact that he/she comes from this population culcte he probability that they have swine fiu Given they tested positive. To get FULL CREDIT craw out the tree diagram. A) 46% B) 5% C) 1% D) 03% E13%

Explanation / Answer

P(tested positive) =P(swine flu and tested positive+not swine flu and tested positive)

=(0.005*0.95+(1-0.005)*0.1)=0.10425

therefore P(have swine flu|tested positive) ==(0.005*0.95)/0.10425 =0.0456 ~ 4.6%

option A

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