would you please change these follwoing vaules in the question? 95%/60%/10% 90%/
ID: 3056792 • Letter: W
Question
would you please change these follwoing vaules in the question?
95%/60%/10% 90%/65%/20%
(Others remain the same)
2-147. Customers are used to evaluate preliminary prod- uct designs. In the past, 95% of highly successful products received good reviews, 60% of moderately successful products received good reviews, and 10% of poor products received good reviews. In addition, 45% of products have been highly successful, 30% have been moderately successful, and 25% have been poor products (a) What is the probability that a product attains a good review? (b) If a new design attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful product? (c) If a product does not attain a good review, what is the prob- ability that it will be a highly successful product?Explanation / Answer
P(review|high)=0.9 , this means P(not review|high)=1-0.9=0.1
P(review|moderate)=0.65
P(review|low)=0.2
P(high)=0.45
P(moderate)=0.3
P(low)=0.25
a) P(review)=P(review|high)*P(high)+P(review|moderate)*P(moderate)+P(review|low)*P(low)
=0.9*0.45+0.65*0.3+0.2*0.25=0.65
b) P(high|review)=P(review|high)*P(high)/P(review)=0.9*0.45/0.65=0.623
c) P(high|not review)=P(not review|high)*P(high)/P(not review) = 0.1*0.45/(1-0.65)=0.12857
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