For a student whose questionaire responses indicate that he is \"not at risk\",
ID: 3065158 • Letter: F
Question
For a student whose questionaire responses indicate that he is "not at risk", what is the probability that he will actually graduate?
4. A group of social psychologists have developed a brief questionnaire to detect students who are at risk of dropping out of high school. The questionnaire, which has been validated for use in urban public schools, is typically administered at the beginning of ninth grade (the beginning of high school). For simplicity, the questionnaire categorizes students as either "at risk" or "not at risk" of dropping out of high school before graduation. Empirical results indicate that 56% of students who actually dropped out of high school were considered "at risk" on the basis of the questionnaire, whereas only 22% of students who ultimately graduated were considered "at risk." Consider the use of this questionnaire in an urban high school with a 24% dropout rate.Explanation / Answer
Dropouts=56%
Graduates=44%
Percentage of graduates at risk=22% of 44%=9.68%
Percentage of graduates at no-risk= 34.32%
Urban High School
Drop out rate=24%
Graduates=76%
Based on previous data,
Percentage of graduates at risk=22% of 76%=26.72%
Percentage of graduates at no-risk= 78% of 76%=59.28%
For a student whose questionaire responses indicate that he is "not at risk", The probability that he will actually graduate=0.5928
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