Week 3: Discussion - Probabilities - -What are the Chances? All Sections Pregnan

Question

Week 3: Discussion - Probabilities - -What are the Chances? All Sections Pregnancy Test A pregnancy testing device is used by 1000 different women from a population of women who think they might be pregnant. The results are depicted in the contingency table below. Here, a positive pregnancy test result means pregnancy is detected. Was the Woman Actually Pregnant? No 13 502 Yes Positive Test Result 479 Negative Test Result Please answer one of the questions below. Only 5 students may respond to the same question in order to ensure an even distribution of posts among the 5 questions. Make sure you show your work and explain your results. When you respond to peers, please respond to students who did not cover the same question that you did. Please submit your initial post by Wednesday at 11:59 pm and all follow-up posts by Sunday at 11:59 pm. The discussions grading rubric is used for this assignment

Explanation / Answer

P(Pr) = 485/1000 = 0.485
P(Pr') = 0.515

P(P|Pr) = 479/1000 = 0.479
P(P'|Pr) = 6/1000 = 0.006
P(P|Pr') = 13/1000 = 0.013
P(P'|Pr') = 502/1000 = 0.502

Probability the test result is negative but the woman is actually pregnant,
P(Pr|P') = P(P'|Pr)*P(Pr)/(P(P'|Pr)*P(Pr) + P(P'|Pr')*P(Pr'))
= 0.006*0.485/(0.006*0.485 + 0.502*0.515)
= 0.0111

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