In a population of 10,000, there are 5000 nonsmokers, 2500 smokers of one pack o
ID: 3072476 • Letter: I
Question
In a population of 10,000, there are 5000 nonsmokers, 2500 smokers of one pack or less per day, and 2500 smokers of more than one pack per day. During any month, there is a 9% probability that a nonsmoker will begin smoking a pack or less per day, and a 3% probability that a nonsmoker will begin smoking more than a pack per day. For smokers who smoke a pack or less per day, there is a 10% probability of quitting and a 10% probability of increasing to more than a pack per day. For smokers who smoke more than a pack per day, there is a 7% probability of quitting and a 10% probability of dropping to a pack or less per day. How many people will be in each group in 1 month in 2 months, and in 1 year? (Round your answers to the nearest whole number.) (a) in 1 month nonsmokers 1 pack/day or less more than 1 pack/day X people X people people 2475 (b) in 2 months nonsmokers 1 pack/day or less more than 1 pack/day x people people X people (c) in 1 year nonsmokers 1 pack/day or less more than 1 pack/day people people peopleExplanation / Answer
9% probability that nonsmokers will begin smoking a pack or less per day = 0.09*5000 = 450
3% probability that nonsmokers will begin smoking more than a pack per day = 0.03*5000 = 150
10% probability that smokers quiting from a pack or less per day = 0.1*2500 = 250
10% probability that smokers increases who smoke more pack per day = 0.1*2500 = 250
7% probability that smokers quiting from more pack per day group = 0.07*2500 = 175
10% probability that smokers shift to a pack or less per day from more group = 0.1*2500 = 250
a) In month
Non smokers = 5000 - (450 +150) + (250 + 175)
= 5000 - 600 + 425 = 4825 people
1 pack per day or less = 2500 + 450 - 250 - 250 = 2450 people
More than 1 pack per day = 2500 +150 + 250 - 175 = 2725 people
b)
In 2 months
Non smokers= 4825 - 175 = 4650 people
1pack per day or less = 2450 - 50 = 2400 people
More than one pack = 2725 + 225 = 2950 people
c)
In year
Non smokers = 5000 - 12*175 = 2900 people
1 pack per day or less = 2500 - 12*50 = 1900 people
More than one pack per day = 2500 + 12*225 = 5200 people
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