Question 1) Does it seem reasonable for a test that is 98% accurate be so wrong

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Question 1) Does it seem reasonable for a test that is 98% accurate be so wrong with positive test results? And all the other questions please Stats Lab 2 Probability and Conditional Probability Medical Test Conditional Probability Backstory Whenever you take a screening test at your doctor's office, there are issues with "False Positive" and "False Negative" results. A False Positive means the test comes back positive, even though you are NOT positive. A False Negative means the test missed the fact you ARE positive. Both of these types of errors can be detrimental to your health. Clearly, i you miss a disease, you lose the ability to treat it until later. By then it may be too late. The reason for this is, if the test says you do not have the disease, there is no need to retest to confirm. (We will see this later.) If you test positive for a disease, you should be given a secondary test to confirm the results of the first test. In the mean time, if you do test positive, you might be given the treatment, to get you started down the road to better health. The assumption is that the treatments do NOT do much harm. Therefore, starting treatment now and stopping it later has little effect in your overall health. However, if you think about this situation, that's not true. Suppose you were given a Cancer screening and you are told it came back positive. How does that diagnosis affect your feelings? (this happened to me twice in HS.) If the doctor decided to do it, they might start chemotherapy whi they wait for the better test results to come back. The chemotherapy y would be given does cause health issues. Let alone the fact it is very expensive What if you took a drug screening test for a new job and it came back with a false positive? Could the delay between when you took the test, got the results and got retested, affect your ability to start the job or even get the job? How would you feel if you had a false positive drug test and it cost you your best job offer? What do you do? Suppose that as part of your family member's probation, they need to take a drug/alcohol test. If the test comes back positive, they go back to prison. Or, suppose you (if you are female) or your girlfriend/fiancée/wife took a pregnancy test. What would be your reaction if it came back positive right now? What about 5-10 years ago? What about 5-10 years from now? The cost of these types of false positive and false negatives have a cost, not only monetary, but emotional and physical. That is why over the last few years, a lot of the medical groups have changed their suggestions for screening tests Your Task: Open the excel sheet labeled Stats Lab 2 Data". There are 2 tabs at the bottom of the sheet. Click on the tab labeled "Conditional Probability There are 4 cells that you will fill in values. They are in bold. You will need to fill in these cells and let Excel do the work. The Number of subjects" cell should stay at 100,000. This is the basis for most public health calculations. The "Probability of disease" will change based upon the disease or

Explanation / Answer

Answer to question#1 )

A test that is 98% times accurate implies that it will share the true positives approximately 98% times and it will deliver true negatives also 98% times

this implies that the false positives and false negatives each of them must be close to 2% only

But the question says that true positive has a rate of 33.11% which is too less as compared to 98%

hence it is NOT reasonable

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Answer to questioN# 2)

A 98% accuracy provides us that 98% of the patients are identified without disease as negative. Thus true negative is 98%. But the rest of the 2% patients are identified as positives whereas they donot have the disease. Hence false positive becomes 2%. This is how false positives and negatives relate to the accuracy of the test

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Answer to question# 3)

The probability of a positive test being accurate is 33.11% as specified in the question

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Answer to question# 4)

If the probability of false positive and false negative rates is reduced, this increases the accuracy of the test. Accuracny of the test provides the image of the true negative result. Thus id the false percents decrease, ultimately the accuracy of the test increases.

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