Complete: Chapter 6 Problem Set A Aa 1. Engagement Activity: Probability Scissor

Question

Complete: Chapter 6 Problem Set A Aa 1. Engagement Activity: Probability Scissors A common way for two people to settle a frivolous dispute is to beat pap play a game of rock-paper-scissors. In this game, each person simultaneously displays a hand signal to indicate a rock, a piece of paper, or a pair of sossors. Rock beats sossors, scissors beats paper, and paper beats rock. If both players select the same hand signal, the game results in a tie. Paper beats rock On a given evening, you and your roommate are arguing over who should control the television remote. Your roommate suggests a game of rock-paper-soissors to settle the dispute. Rock beats scissors obviously, you would like to use the hand signal with the highest probability of winning the game. So which hand signal would you throw? (Note: This is an exploratory exercise. You will get full points for your answer no matter As you probebly figured out, your chances of winning over your roommate are the same with any symbol, but only if your roommate makes truly random throws. Most people, however, tend to be nonrandom in their actions. Knowing nformation about your roommate's throwing tendencies can give you a significant advantage. Let's say that based on your roommate's behavior in similar games, you know that there is a 28% likelihood that your roommate will choose rock and a 61% ikelihood that your roommate will choose paper Does this information what you want to throw? use the information that you have been given about your roommate, and dlick the radio button under the gesture you think you should throw to win the game. 65

Explanation / Answer

1) for without knowing roommate behaviour one can use any of above options as they are equally probable of winning ; choose Rock (or any of three)

2) after knowing that he is most likely to choose paper ; one must use scissor gesture for having higher probability of winnning

hence choose Scissor

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