In the below question, the computation that was answered still stated one of the
ID: 3125120 • Letter: I
Question
In the below question, the computation that was answered still stated one of the number of possibilities, but if another couple were in the area wouldn't the top number increase? If not can you explain why?
In July 1964, an elderly woman was mugged in Costa Mesa, California. In the vicinity of the crime a tall, bearded man sat waiting for a yellow car. Shortly, after the crime was committed, a young, tall woman, wearing her blond hair in a ponytail, was seen running from the scene of the crime and getting into the car, which sped off. The police broadcast a description of the suspected muggers. Soon afterward, a couple fitting the description was arrested and convicted of the crime. Although the evidence in the case was largely circumstantial, the two people arrested were nonetheless convicted of the crime. The prosecutor based his entire case on basic probability theory, showing the unlikeness of another couple being in the area while having all the same characteristics that the elderly woman described. The following probabilities were used.
Compute the probability of another couple being in that area with the same characteristics.
Would you use the addition or multiplication rule? Why?
Are the characteristics independent or dependent?
How are the computations affected by the assumption of independence or dependence?
Should any court case be based solely on probabilities?
Would you convict the couple who was arrested even if there were no eyewitnesses?
Comment on why in today's justice system a person can be convicted solely in the results of probabilities.
In actuality, aren't most court cases based on uncalculated probabilities?
CHARACTERISTIC ASSUMED PROBABILITY Drives a yellow car 1 out of 12 Man over 6 feet tall 1 out of 10 Man wearing tennis shoes 1 out of 4 Man with beard 1 out of 11 Woman with blond hair 1 out of 3 Woman with hair in a ponytail 1 out of 13 Woman over 6 feet tall 1 out of 100Explanation / Answer
Compute the probability of another couple being in that area with the same characteristics
Would you use the addition or multiplication rule?
Multiplication , because the characteristics are independnets for each other
Are the characteristics independent or dependent?
independent
CHARACTERISTIC ASSUMED PROBABILITY Drives a yellow car 1 out of 12 Man over 6 feet tall 1 /10 Man wearing tennis shoes 1/4 Man with beard 1/11 Woman with blond hair 1/3 Woman with hair in a ponytail 1 /13 Woman over 6 feet tall 1/100Related Questions
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