Your friend, Jim, has a slipped disk and is facing a surgical operation to remed
ID: 3126061 • Letter: Y
Question
Your friend, Jim, has a slipped disk and is facing a surgical operation to remedy it. The surgeon explains the risks to him: The probability that the actual surgery fails (event F) is 0.12; The probability that an infection occurs (event E) is 0.08 and The probability that both; failure of the surgery and an infection occur is 0.02. Use these labels and the information provided to give answers to the following questions: What is the probability that Jim's surgery will be successful? What is the probability that Jim's surgery fails or that he gets an infect on? What is the probability that Jim's surgery will be successful and that he is free of infection? What is the probability that Jim's surgery was successful given that he was free of infection? What is the probability that Jim's had an infection given that the surgery was successful?Explanation / Answer
1.
P(F') = 1 - P(F) = 1 - 0.12 = 0.88 [ANSWER]
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2.
P(F U E) = P(F) + P(E) -P(F n E) = 0.12 + 0.08 - 0.02 = 0.18 [ANSWER]
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3.
P(F U E)' = 1 - P(F U E) = 1 - 0.18 = 0.82 [ANSWER]
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4.
P(F'|E') = P(F' n E')/P(E') = 0.82/(1-0.08) = 0.891304348 [ANSWER]
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5.
P(E|F') = P(F' n E)/P(F') = [P(E) - P(F n E)]/P(F')
= (0.08 - 0.02)/(1-0.12)
= 0.068181818 [ANSWER]
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