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1. Consider a simple gambling game. Each time you bet $10. If you lose (with pro

ID: 3126852 • Letter: 1

Question

1. Consider a simple gambling game. Each time you bet $10. If you lose (with probability 1 p), you lose the $10 you bet; if you win(with probability p), you get back your $10 and win extra $10 dollars. The games are assumed to be independent from one time to another. Suppose you play the game repeatedly. Define a random variable N to be the number of games until your first winning. (a) Give the distribution of N. (b) Let L be the total amount of dollars you have lost until your first winning. Write L as a function of N. (c) Find the the expected loss E(L) until your first winning.

Explanation / Answer

If N is the number of games to be played to have the first game to be won, then the first N - 1 games have to be lost.

So,

The probability distribution = (1-p)N - 1 * p    [ this is an example of geometric districbution ]

L = amount of dollars lost in N-1 games.

Since, each lost games cost $10,

L = -10(N-1)     [ negative sign indicates the loss. It can be dropped if L is assumed to be inherently negative ]

If the net loss is required, then : Lnet = -10(N-1) + 10

c)

Expected loss : Expected number of failures before first success = ( 1 - p ) / p

Thus,

Expected loss = 10 (1-p) / p

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