Suppose that there are two (2) candidates (i.e., Jones and Johns) in the upcomin

Question

Suppose that there are two (2) candidates (i.e., Jones and Johns) in the upcoming presidential election. Sara notes that she has discussed the presidential election candidates with 15 friends, and 10 said that they are voting for candidate Jones. Sara is therefore convinced that candidate Jones will win the election because Jones gets more than 50% of votes.

Answer the following questions in the space provided below:

Based on what you now know about statistical inference, is Sara’s conclusion a logical conclusion? Why or why not?

How many friend samples Sara should have in order to draw the conclusion with 95% confidence interval? Why?

How would you explain your conclusion to Sara without using any statistical jargon? Why?

Explanation / Answer

Based on what you now know about statistical inference, is Sara’s conclusion a logical conclusion? Why or why not?

It is not, because her sample size is so small, and that means a large variation in the sample proportion. Hence, she cannot be so sure than JOnes will win.

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How many friend samples Sara should have in order to draw the conclusion with 95% confidence interval? Why?

She needs a sample size at least 30 so we can approximate the distribution of sample proportions as normal.

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How would you explain your conclusion to Sara without using any statistical jargon? Why?

We cannot be so sure that Jones will win becasue if we only survey few people, it is very likely that we can draw a wrong conclusion. This sample could simply be by chance, and not necessarily describe the whole population.

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