In a test for ESP (extrasensory perception), a subject is told that cards the ex
ID: 3132664 • Letter: I
Question
In a test for ESP (extrasensory perception), a subject is told that cards the experimenter can see but he cannot contain either a star, a circle, a wave, or a square. As the experimenter looks at each of five cards in turn, the subject names the shape on the card. A subject who is just guessing has probability 0.25 of guessing correctly on each card. Assume the subject’s guesses are independent of each other. The probability that the subject guesses the shape correctly on the first and last card, but incorrectly on the other three cards, is about
a) 0.026.
b) 0.264.
c) 0.090.
Explanation / Answer
The probability of guessing correctly is 0.25.
Thus the required probability that the subject guesses the shape correctly on the first and last card, but incorrectly on the other three cards is:
0.25*(1-0.25)^3*0.25
=0.026
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