Ohio exit poll: An exit poll of 2293 voters in the 2006 Ohio Senatorial election

Question

Ohio exit poll: An exit poll of 2293 voters in the 2006 Ohio Senatorial election indicated that 44% voted for the Republican candidate, Mike DeWine, and 56% voted for the Democratic candidate, Sherrod Brown. a. Suppose that 50% of the population voted for DeWine. Describe the sampling distribution of the sample proportion voting for him in the exit poll, and find and interpret its standard error. b. If 50% of the population voted for DeWine, would it have been surprising to obtain the results in this exit poll? Why? c. Based on your answer in (b), would you be willing to predict the outcome of this election? Explain.

Explanation / Answer

a. Suppose that 50% of the population voted for DeWine. Describe the sampling distribution of the sample proportion voting for him in the exit poll, and find and interpret its standard error.

sampling distribtuion

sample proportion = 0.50

standard error = srqt ( 0.50*0.50 / 2293 ) = 0.010

b)

No because, the error of the sample was 1% and the sample say that 44% will voted for Mike Dewine

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