The Biloxi Manufacturing Company has traditionally had a fairly consistent produ
ID: 3157376 • Letter: T
Question
The Biloxi Manufacturing Company has traditionally had a fairly consistent production rate. To forecast the next month’s production, they use a 7-month moving average. The company produces two major products, the Model 350, a 3.5 horsepower lawnmower and the model 525, a 5.25 horsepower, self-propelled lawnmower.
The forecast of the production of the Model 525 for February 2015 using their normal process would be:
772
638
770
763
794
The forecast of the production of the Model 350 for February 2015 using their normal process would be:
228
155
262
215
245
The popularity of the Model 350 has dropped significantly since October, 2014 and the company wants to adjust their forecasting model to compensate for the change. The production department decided to weight the previous months as follows: 0.5, 0.3, 0.1, 0.04, 0.03, 0.02, 0.01 with last month first (0.5) and the other months going back in order. Calculate the weighted 7-month moving average for February 2015 for the Model 350:
245
228
215
163
155
Biloxi Manufacturing Company Production Year Model 350 Model 525 2013 March 248 776 April 263 782 May 251 794 June 260 736 July 238 750 August 240 743 September 268 771 October 280 756 November 267 732 December 254 763 2014 January 262 743 February 271 776 March 264 780 April 248 734 May 262 766 June 253 754 July 255 760 August 264 757 September 281 779 October 238 778 November 164 756 December 148 784 2015 January 153 776Explanation / Answer
Hence Forcast = [(Mean - SD), (Mean+ SD) ]
Answer (1). Option C is right answer.
Answer (2) Option B is right answer.
for answer 3 :-
Hence Expected value for Feb 15 is 163.
So option (D) is right answer.
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