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The release of two out of three prisoners has been announced, but their identity

ID: 3157783 • Letter: T

Question

The release of two out of three prisoners has been announced, but their identity is kept secret. One of the prisoners considers asking a friendly guard to tell him who is the prisoner other than himself that will be released, but hesitates based on the following rationale: at the prisoner's present state of knowledge, the probability of being released is 2/3, but after he knows the answer, the probability of being released will become 1/2, since there will be two prisoners (including himself) who's fate is unknown and exactly one of the two will be released. What is wrong with this line of reasoning?

Explanation / Answer

i don't think anything wrong in the reasoning.

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