4.13 McFadden 1976 estimated a multinominal logit model of work-trip mode choice

Question

4.13
McFadden 1976 estimated a multinominal logit model of work-trip mode choice for the San Francisco Bay area. A portion of his results are given in table 4.19. The work-trip modes available to the 771 commuters sampled were:
1 automobile be all alone
2 bus with walk access
3 bus with automobile access
4 carpool

The numbers in parentheses or the mode associated with each variable
a) evaluate the effects of increases in modal cost in travel times on the demand for modes. Be sure to pay attention to the mode or modes associated with each variable when interpreting the results.
Are these effects consistent with your expectations.

Explanatory variable.                                                              Coefficient estimate.               t statistic
Mode cost cents/postage wage cents per minute (1–4)        -0.0284                                    -4.31
Auto in vehicle time minutes (1,3,4 )                                      -0.0644                                   -5.65
Worktime minutes (2, 3)                                                         -0.0259                                    -2. 94
Transfer wait time (minutes) (2,3)                                          -0.0689                                    -5.28
Number of transfers (2.3)                                                       -0.105                                     -0.77
Headway of first bus minutes (2.3)                                        -0.0318                                    -3.18
Number of drivers in household (1)                                        1.02                                         4.81
number drivers in the household (3)                                       0.99                                         03.29
number drivers in the household (4)                                       0.872                                       4.25
Head of household dummy variable (1)                                 0.627                                       3.37
Employment density at work location (1)                               -0.00160                                  -2.27
Home near or in CBD (1)                                                       -0.502                                    -4.18
Autos per driver (1)                                                                 5.00                                         9.65
Autos per driver (3)                                                                 2.33                                         2.74
Autos per driver (4)                                                                 2.38                                        5.28
Auto alone constant (1)                                                           -5.26                                        -5.93
bus with auto access constant (3)                                          -5.49                                        -5.33
Carpool constant (4)                                                               -3.84                                        -6.36

Source McFadden 1976 table 3, P.38

b) relative to taking the bus with walk access what effect on model demand occurs when there is an increase in the number of drivers in the household.
Whereas the number of licensed drivers reflects the demand for automobile use, the number of available automobiles reflects the supply.
Do the results indicate that an increase in supply increases the use of automobiles in the work trip.
Support that the number of autos in the household increases.
What effect will this have upon the demand for bus with auto access relative to the demand for carpool as a work trip mode.
c) based upon the reported results who is more likely to use the automobile in the work trip a female head of household or a male non-head of household.
d) what will be the effects on a workers work-trip mode choice who lives near downtown and works in a high density employment area.
Which of the two effects is stronger.

Explanation / Answer

b)When number of drivers increases, as they all have the positive coeffients, the target value also increases from 1to 4 hence the more likely segments will be  bus with automobile access and carpool

Hence it is a positive effect from automobile access to carpool

c)It has a positive correlation with the target, hence carpool is the more likely segment for whomever this indicator is having 1 as value

d)high density employment area has low t value and low coefficient, it has negative correlation on the target. But, at an overall level we can say that it has least effect on the target

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