Try to estimate the probability a person will call when you\'re thinking of them

Question

Try to estimate the probability a person will call when you're thinking of them. In other words, estimate the probability of the combined event P(thinking of a person)P(person calls).

Take these factors into account:

The likelihood you'd think of the person at a randomly selected time of day.

The likelihood the person would call at a randomly selected time of day.

If the combined events were to occur once, would the probability present compelling evidence that the event wasn't merely a chance occurrence? What if it happened twice in one day? Three times in one day?

Explanation / Answer

Here, the given question is a guesstimate. We are trying to estimate the probability of a person will cll when you're thinking of them.

so this Pr (A) = P( thinking of a person) * P ( Person calls); Here A is the event that a person will call when you will think about them.

Here there are some factors which should be taken into account.

(a) ikelihood i'd think of the person at a randomly selected time of day. There are possibilities that i will work for 70% of my daytime and rest time i think. If he/she is an important person/closed relative/family/spouse , then there is high chance that i will be thinking about him/her and the probability P(thinking of a person) will be varying on the importance level of that person for me.

(b) Likelihood the person would call at a randomly selected time of day. Some persons tend to call frequently and some persons never or rarely calls. So, it depends on the past tendency how people calls the probability P(person calls) will vary .

we can guess that P(Thinking of a person) can be of dimension of 0.05 to 0.15 because there are numerous close persons can go into our mind so we will take it as 0.1.

and similarly P(Person calls in a day) can be of dimension of 0.15 to 0.25, because if he is a frequent caller, that would be a high probability andif not it will be very low so we will take it as 0.2

so P(A) = 0.2 * 0.1 = 0.02

so the probability is quite low but we can say that the probability present comelling evidence that event may not be a chance occurance.

But if it happened twicein a day which have a expected probability of around 0.004 , that will surely be a rare coincidence and if it happened three times in a day, it may be that the God have gifted that unique power.

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