Macy’s wishes to forecast monthly sales for the upcoming year of its line design

Question

Macy’s wishes to forecast monthly sales for the upcoming year of its line designer shirts. Month Sales Month Sales

Months Sales

1         424

2           418

3           435

4         449

5         446

6       460

7           500

8         481

9           489

10         506

11         530

12         532

13         546

14         557    

15   559

16         554  

17        573

18      574

19        604

20      611

21      626

22        636

23    649

24        643

a. Graph the TS. Does a stationary model seem appropriate?

b. Use Holt’s technique with = 0.2 and = 0.3 to perform forecast for next 12 months.

c. Use Holt’s technique with = 0.5 and = 0.7 to perform forecast for next 12 months.

d. Using the MSE performance measure for this data, which b) or c) gives more reliable forecast?

Explanation / Answer

Their appeal transcends income ,education and taste .while other fashions have come and gone the lowly T-shirt keeps selling ,but even this garments sales may br vulnerable to a recession ,indeed a asurge in domestic capacity and the flow of imports have made shirt markerting asweaty contact sport ,analysis are expecting cut backs in domestic T-shirt output to contiune in 1991

" The T-shirt market this year is soft due too much capacity and the erosion in general economic coditions,"said Robert Blachard ,president of the national Knitwear manufactures Association ,of Morristowm ,Nj"Reatilers knew that they can alaways get the supply they need and are controlling their inventories"

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