5) A manager is deciding whether or not to build a small facility. Demand is unc

Question

5) A manager is deciding whether or not to build a small facility. Demand is uncertain and can be either at a high or low level. If the manager chooses a small facility and demand is low, the payoff is $300. If the manager chooses a small facility and demand is high, the payoff is $100. On the other hand, if the manager chooses a large facility and demand is low, the payoff is -$200, but if demand is high, the payoff is $800. (a) What would be the best decision based on the maximax criterion? (b) What would be the best decision based on the maximin criterion? (c) What would be the best decision based on the minimax regret? 6) The ABC Co. is considering a new consumer product. They believe that the XYZ Co. may come out with a competing product. If ABC adds an assembly line for the product and XYZ does not follow with a competitive product, their expected profit is $40,000; if they add an assembly line and XYZ does follow, they still expect a $10,000 profit. If ABC adds a new plant addition and XYZ does not produce a competitive product, they expect a profit of $600,000; if XYZ does compete for this market, ABC expects a loss of $100,000. For what value of probability that XYZ will offer a competing product will ABC be indifferent between the alternatives? 5) A manager is deciding whether or not to build a small facility. Demand is uncertain and can be either at a high or low level. If the manager chooses a small facility and demand is low, the payoff is $300. If the manager chooses a small facility and demand is high, the payoff is $100. On the other hand, if the manager chooses a large facility and demand is low, the payoff is -$200, but if demand is high, the payoff is $800. (a) What would be the best decision based on the maximax criterion? (b) What would be the best decision based on the maximin criterion? (c) What would be the best decision based on the minimax regret? 6) The ABC Co. is considering a new consumer product. They believe that the XYZ Co. may come out with a competing product. If ABC adds an assembly line for the product and XYZ does not follow with a competitive product, their expected profit is $40,000; if they add an assembly line and XYZ does follow, they still expect a $10,000 profit. If ABC adds a new plant addition and XYZ does not produce a competitive product, they expect a profit of $600,000; if XYZ does compete for this market, ABC expects a loss of $100,000. For what value of probability that XYZ will offer a competing product will ABC be indifferent between the alternatives? 5) A manager is deciding whether or not to build a small facility. Demand is uncertain and can be either at a high or low level. If the manager chooses a small facility and demand is low, the payoff is $300. If the manager chooses a small facility and demand is high, the payoff is $100. On the other hand, if the manager chooses a large facility and demand is low, the payoff is -$200, but if demand is high, the payoff is $800. (a) What would be the best decision based on the maximax criterion? (b) What would be the best decision based on the maximin criterion? (c) What would be the best decision based on the minimax regret? 6) The ABC Co. is considering a new consumer product. They believe that the XYZ Co. may come out with a competing product. If ABC adds an assembly line for the product and XYZ does not follow with a competitive product, their expected profit is $40,000; if they add an assembly line and XYZ does follow, they still expect a $10,000 profit. If ABC adds a new plant addition and XYZ does not produce a competitive product, they expect a profit of $600,000; if XYZ does compete for this market, ABC expects a loss of $100,000. For what value of probability that XYZ will offer a competing product will ABC be indifferent between the alternatives?

Explanation / Answer

The payoff table is

(a) Maximax criterion (Best of best)

Best of Rows are ($300, $800). The maximum is $800. So, the best decision is to build Large Facility.

(b) Maximax criterion (Best of worst)

Worst of Rows are ($100, -$200). The maximum is $100. So, the best decision is to build Small Facility.

(c) Minimax Regret -

Regret table is

The best of rows is ($700,$500). The minimum is $500, so the best decision is to build Large Facility.

Low High Small Facility $300 $100 Large Facilty -$200 $800

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