Avian Influenza A (H5N1) is highly pathogenic. It first came to the attention of
ID: 3202427 • Letter: A
Question
Avian Influenza A (H5N1) is highly pathogenic. It first came to the attention of the world in November 2003. The virus has been constantly evolving. From being 100% in wild birds (such as geese) it first evolved to infect domestic poultry. Later it evolved to infect humans. Most cases of infection have been traced to human contact with infected poultry. While the virus currently does not yet transmit efficiently from person to person, some cases of person to person transmission have occurred.[1]
Use Table 4 (below) for the following calculations. Remember that case-fatality rates are calculated with a multiplier of 100 (as percentages).
Table 4: Cumulative Number of Confirmed Human Cases and Deaths from Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Reported to WHO, 2003- November 21, 2016
Country
2003-2009
2010-2014
2015
2016[2]
Total
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Azerbaijan
8
5
8
5
Bangladesh
1
0
6
1
1
0
8
1
Cambodia
9
7
47
30
56
37
Canada
1
1
1
1
China
38
25
9
5
6
1
53
31
Djibouti
1
0
1
0
Egypt
90
27
120
50
136
39
10
3
356
119
Indonesia
162
134
35
31
2
2
199
167
Iraq
3
2
3
2
Lao People’s Democratic Republic
2
2
2
2
Myanmar
1
0
1
0
Nigeria
1
1
1
1
Pakistan
3
1
3
1
Thailand
25
17
25
17
Turkey
12
4
12
4
Viet Nam
112
57
15
7
127
64
Total
468
282
233
125
145
42
10
3
856
452
Calculate the total case-fatality rate for avian influenza in the world (all countries combined and all years combined). (Show all steps.)
Please calculate the case-fatality rates for avian influenza for each of the following: 2003-2009, 2010-2014, 2015, and for 2016 (up until November 21st). After calculating these rates, place them in table 5 below.
Describe how the case-fatality rate for avian influenza has changed over time.
Calculate the case-fatality rates for avian influenza for each country where it has occurred for all years combined. After calculating these rates, place them in table 6 below.
Which countries has had the highest case-fatality rate for this disease? Which countries has had the lowest?
Not including countries with fewer than 8 total cases, which country has had the highest case-fatality rate and which the lowest?
Explain why it is necessary to maintain surveillance of this particular disease.
Table 5: Case-Fatality of Avian Influenza over Time
Date
2003-2009
2010-14
2015
2016
Case-Fatality Rate
Table 6: Case-Fatality Rates of Avian Influenza by Country
Country
Case-Fatality Rate
Country
Case-Fatality Rate
Azerbaijan
Iraq
Bangladesh
Laos
Cambodia
Myanmar
Canada
Nigeria
China
Pakistan
Djibouti
Thailand
Egypt
Turkey
Indonesia
Viet Nam
Country
2003-2009
2010-2014
2015
2016[2]
Total
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Cases
Deaths
Azerbaijan
8
5
8
5
Bangladesh
1
0
6
1
1
0
8
1
Cambodia
9
7
47
30
56
37
Canada
1
1
1
1
China
38
25
9
5
6
1
53
31
Djibouti
1
0
1
0
Egypt
90
27
120
50
136
39
10
3
356
119
Indonesia
162
134
35
31
2
2
199
167
Iraq
3
2
3
2
Lao People’s Democratic Republic
2
2
2
2
Myanmar
1
0
1
0
Nigeria
1
1
1
1
Pakistan
3
1
3
1
Thailand
25
17
25
17
Turkey
12
4
12
4
Viet Nam
112
57
15
7
127
64
Total
468
282
233
125
145
42
10
3
856
452
Explanation / Answer
a) the total case-fatality rate for avian influenza in the world = (number of people died / total number of cases)*100
= (452/856)*100 = 52.8%
b) Similar to previous part
c) The case-fatality rate for avian influenza has decreased overtime. It decreased drastically in 2015, which was a positive sign but it increased again in 2016.
d) This can be done in the similar manner as part (a) and (b).
Date 2003-09 2010-14 2015 2016 Case-Fatality Rate (282/468)*100 = 60.25% (125/233)*100 = 53.64% (42/145)*100 = 28.96% (3/10)*100 = 30%Related Questions
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